Historian who predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections reveals 2024 pick

Allan Lichtman, historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year's White House race. Who does Lichtman say will win?

He forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the winner. In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen "keys" or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before being named "Distinguished Professor" at American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. in modern American history and quantitative methods from Harvard. He has lectured globally, authored 13 books and hundreds of academic articles, and served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases. Lichtman is widely recognized for his political commentary and election forecasting.

What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign?

The keys include questions such as:

1. Did the White House party gain House seats during the midterm elections?

2. Is the sitting president running for reelection?

3. Is the White House party avoiding a primary contest?

4. Is there a third-party challenger?

5. Is the short-term economy strong?

6. Has long-term economic growth been as good as in the previous two terms?

7. Has the White House party made major changes to national policy?

8. Is there sustained social unrest during the term?

9. Is the White House untainted by scandal, and is the incumbent party charismatic?

10. Is the challenger uncharismatic?

11. Is the incumbent charismatic?

12. Has the White House party experienced a major failure in foreign policy?

13. Has the White House party achieved foreign policy success?

ALLAN IS WRONG. END OF THIS STORY